The Bottom Line - Banking on Experience

March 31, 2026

Notes from the field: Durability, discipline, and reasons for confidence

Turn on the national news, and the outlook can feel uncertain. Headlines point to rising costs, shifting policies, and questions about what’s next. It’s easy to come away with the impression that business is slowing or pulling back.

But what we’re hearing on the street tells a more complete story.

We’re meeting with business owners and leaders every day. And across industries, there’s a consistent theme of success stories fueled by innovation and ingenuity. Companies of all sizes, across the region, are finding ways to win, even in the challenging environment we all face today. 

Entrepreneurs understand that they can’t control the headlines, but they can control what happens inside their businesses. And they’re doing exactly that.

Business leaders are still moving forward, and they’re doing it with discipline and drive. Yes, costs matter more now, so decisions are more deliberate, but they are still being made nonetheless. People are focused on efficiency, on performance, and on strengthening systems so they can absorb unexpected pressures, whether that’s tariffs, labor costs, or changes in demand.

And they’re doing it with creativity. We’re seeing companies innovate in how they operate and how they serve their customers, and these aren’t reactive moves, they’re strategic adjustments that position them for the long term.

That said, the marketplace challenges are real. Labor continues to influence costs in meaningful ways. In some sectors, entry-level hiring has improved, while experienced talent remains competitive. Inflation is still felt unevenly, and in consumer markets, growth is being driven more heavily by higher-income households, while others remain more cautious.

We’re also seeing a divergence in spending and sensitivity. Higher-end housing reflects greater discretionary spending and customization, leading to wider price dispersion, whereas lower-end housing is more constrained, with standardized pricing and limited scope for upgrades.

There are clear bright spots. Infrastructure and construction activity remain strong. Regional growth is creating new demand, including significant investment in energy and development across our market. And most importantly, business owners remain optimistic about their ability to adapt and grow.

The greater Kansas City area has always been a market defined by steady leadership and long-term thinking. That mindset is on full display today.

The headlines may suggest uncertainty, but what we’re seeing in the field is something more grounded: businesses that are realistic about the environment, but determined to keep moving forward. And that’s a story worth knowing and sharing.

— Brian Hoban, Chief Lending Officer, Community & Specialty Banking, Country Club Bank, a division of FNBO, Member FDIC

Economic Insights

A resilient and hopeful economic outlook that is clear-eyed about risk

The global economy and financial markets entered the year on relatively solid footing. Yet the recent outbreak of war in the Middle East is a reminder that today’s environment remains fragile. 

Geopolitical shocks can quickly influence energy prices, inflation expectations, and investor sentiment, even when underlying fundamentals remain intact.

We hope for a swift resolution and recognize the human toll of conflict. While our role is to assess economic implications, those impacts pale in comparison to the suffering experienced on the ground.

For now, markets appear to expect a contained disruption. Despite sharp increases in crude oil prices, longer-dated futures remain well below current levels, suggesting investors do not anticipate a prolonged spike. 

Market behavior has also been relatively orderly. Equities have declined modestly, and the 10-year Treasury yield remains within its recent range. In short, the response has followed a familiar pattern: volatility rises, but the system remains intact so far.

Fundamentals still matter
For investors, the focus remains on companies demonstrating strong fundamentals: revenue and earnings growth, and disciplined capital allocation, at reasonable valuations.

The earnings backdrop is still supportive. S&P 500 earnings are expected to grow just under 12% year over year, marking a potential sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. While estimates have edged slightly lower, that is typical heading into reporting season.

Valuations, however, warrant attention. Forward price-to-earnings ratios near 21x are above historical averages but not extreme given current profitability. Still, elevated valuations reinforce the importance of continued earnings growth. Over time, markets follow fundamentals, but in the short term, they are driven by shifting expectations.

Growth slows, but remains positive
Recent GDP data was softer than expected. Fourth-quarter growth was revised down to 0.7%, with full-year 2025 growth at 2.1%, a moderation from 2024 but still near long-term trend levels.

The primary drag came from government spending, which declined sharply, reducing overall GDP by roughly 1 percentage point. That dynamic may reverse in the coming quarters, with early estimates suggesting first-quarter growth could approach 2.7%.

Inflation remains the key challenge
Inflation continues to be the central concern. The GDP price index rose to 3.8%, while CPI stands at 2.4% year over year and Core PCE at 3.1%. Importantly, these readings predate the latest rise in energy prices, meaning inflation could trend higher in the near term.

A calm surface, with active undercurrents
Despite heavy headlines, the S&P 500 has traded within one of the narrowest ranges to start a year on record. That stability, however, masks meaningful internal movement.

More than 20% of stocks are up or down by more than 20% this year. Most sectors have lagged the broader index, while energy has surged nearly 30%, driven by higher oil prices.

Bottom Line
Looking ahead, three forces will be critical to watch:

Energy prices
Interest rates and credit conditions
The U.S. dollar
All three have been trending higher and could pressure growth if sustained.

Even so, the foundation remains intact. Economic growth continues, corporate earnings are expanding, and markets remain functional.

In environments like this—resilient, yet fragile—discipline matters most. Stay diversified. Stay focused on fundamentals. And maintain a long-term perspective.

Invest well. Be well.

— Rusty Vanneman, CFA^®, CMT^®, Chief Investment Officer (CIO), FNBO Wealth

CFA^® and Chartered Financial Analyst^® are registered trademarks owned by CFA Institute. The Chartered Market Technicians Association (CMT Association) owns the certification marks CMT^® and CHARTERED MARKET TECHNICIAN^®, which it authorizes use of by individuals who have completed the CMT Association’s initial and ongoing certification requirements.

The opinions and views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Country Club Trust Company, a division of First National Bank of Omaha (FNBO), or any affiliate thereof. Information provided is for illustrative and discussion purposes only, should not be considered a recommendation, and is subject to change. Some information provided above may be obtained from outside sources believed to be reliable, but no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness.

Please note that investments involve risk, and that past performance does not guarantee future results. Investment products are not insured by FDIC/other federal agencies; are not deposits of/nor guaranteed by the Bank or any of its subsidiaries/affiliates; and may lose value.

Partnership Profile

How KCN Companies builds lasting value with acquisition financing from Country Club Bank

Building businesses isn’t about quick exits or financial engineering for Chris Jones. It’s about finding strong companies, growing them thoughtfully, and holding them for the long term.

That philosophy is at the core of KCN Companies, a Kansas City-based firm that acquires and operates small to mid-sized businesses with a focus on durability and growth.

“We wanted to do it our own way,” said Jones, a founder and principal of the firm. “The question for us is simple: what are the businesses we want to own for 15, 20 years or more?”

Jones, a Kansas City native and attorney by training, spent a decade in private practice before joining Tallgrass Energy, where he helped guide the company through rapid growth, public offerings, and a successful acquisition by Blackstone. That experience shaped how he thinks about scale, capital, and long-term value creation.

In 2023, Jones, along with his partners Nate Lien and Kalen Smith, launched KCN with a different private equity model in mind, one often referred to as “permanent capital.” 

Instead of buying companies with the plan to sell them in a few years, KCN focuses on building enduring businesses that it can grow over decades.

“We don’t think of these as portfolio companies,” Jones said. “We think of them as platforms we can build around.”

Each industry platform begins with an initial acquisition, typically a business generating $2 million to $6 million in EBITDA. From there, KCN grows both organically and through additional acquisitions, expanding its capabilities, customer base, and geographic reach.

One example is their newly established packaging platform, the centerpiece of which is Sprosty Bag, an operation currently focused on agricultural products such as feed, fertilizer, and seed bags. Sprosty has historically been centered in Ohio and the surrounding states; KCN's goal is to grow Sprosty into a broader regional and eventually national business.

“We want to grow in a disciplined way,” Jones said. “We’re not putting companies at risk for growth at all costs. We’re trying to build something that lasts.”

That long-term mindset also shapes how KCN partners with its businesses. The firm takes an active role, stepping in as operators when needed, while also building leadership teams that can scale independently over time.

A banking relationship built for growth
As KCN began acquiring companies, finding the right financial partner was a priority.

“We knew when we started KCN that we wanted our lenders to be Kansas City institutions,” Jones said. “Country Club Bank quickly rose to the top of that list.”

The bank supported KCN’s acquisition financing and continues to provide lending and operating account support. But for Jones, the relationship goes beyond capital.

“The terms have to be competitive, and they were,” he said. “But more importantly, they understood what we were trying to do and were willing to grow with us.”

Equally important were the team's responsiveness and experience.

“It’s all about the people and the relationships,” Jones said. “Country Club Bank is sophisticated enough to handle complex deals, but still local and personal.”

That balance of having “capability with connections” is critical for a firm like KCN, as Jones says, and crucial for community and long-term business success.

Looking ahead, KCN will be focused on finding the right blend of more acquisitions and organic growth at its current platforms, while keeping a keen eye out for additional companies that could serve as the foundation for future platforms. 

“The goal is to find good companies and help make them better,” Jones said. “And over time, create long-term value for everyone involved.”

M&A Market Intelligence

Turnstone Investment Banking shares its latest insights on regional M&A activity

Turnstone Investment Banking’s latest “State of M&A in Kansas City” report offers a timely look at what’s happening, what’s changing, and where opportunities may be emerging in our regional economy.

While elevated interest rates and valuation uncertainty slowed activity over the past two years, the market remains relatively dynamic. Buyers and sellers are moving closer together, capital is still available, and more deals are progressing.

For business owners, operators, and investors, the report provides a practical snapshot of what’s happening now—and what may be ahead.

A few highlights from the report:

• Valuation expectations are realigning, helping unlock transactions.
• Private equity remains active, with pressure to deploy significant capital.
• Strategic buyers are re-entering, particularly in strong, cash-flow-driven sectors.
• Kansas City’s core industries, including industrials, business services, and niche manufacturing, continue to attract interest.
• Deal structures are evolving, with lenders and buyers getting more creative in today’s rate environment.
• Diligence remains rigorous, with greater scrutiny on margins, customer mix, and earnings quality.

Download the full report for deeper insights into current trends, sector activity, and what to watch in the months ahead.