The Bottom Line - Banking on Perspective
May 28, 2026
Conversations about capital that stand the test of need and timing
There is no shortage of noise in the news these days.
From inflation to interest rates to supply chains, every headline seems designed to make business owners and their teams stop, pause, second-guess, or sit on the sidelines, waiting for iron-clad certainty that, as we all know, is never attainable.
That tension naturally attracts eyeballs and ultimately sells ads. And yet, we know that many hundreds, if not thousands, of businesses in our regional markets alone are still poised for growth. Because we know from data and experience that well-managed businesses don’t just survive in challenging times, they tend to thrive.
Sometimes that means expanding a facility, investing in equipment, or adding delivery capacity. It may also mean entering a new market or hiring ahead of demand. And when the business fundamentals are there, thoughtful, disciplined investments are rewarded.
At Country Club Bank, we spend a great deal of time talking through these decisions with clients. We never simply suggest more loans or working capital; rather, we help business owners pressure-test assumptions, evaluate timing, assess risk, and determine what truly makes sense for their business and industry.
For example, one company may need a new building. Another may discover they can operate more efficiently within their current footprint. One owner may benefit from purchasing equipment, while another may be better served by leasing temporarily during a period of elevated demand.
We talk it through because every business is different. And the case for debt needs to be carefully modeled, evaluated, and, in some cases, argued against to ensure long-term viability and success.
The point is not to say yes to capital automatically. The point is to have deliberate conversations before making major decisions.
One of the advantages of being a relationship-driven bank is that we have real-time visibility into what businesses across many industries are experiencing.
We talk every day with manufacturers, contractors, medical practices, distributors, law firms, homebuilders, and multi-generational family businesses. Those conversations provide practical insights and perspectives that go well beyond headlines and economic forecasts.
And what we continue to see is adaptability and ingenuity.
Business owners in our region have become remarkably resourceful. They’ve weathered a pandemic and supply chain disruptions. They’ve learned to manage through economic volatility. As a result, many are now operating with greater discipline, flexibility, and awareness than ever before.
That does not mean caution is dismissed. It means caution should be paired with clarity and preparation.
If you are considering an expansion, investment, acquisition, or major capital decision, now is the time to have those conversations. Let’s talk early, and let’s keep talking as conditions evolve.
At Country Club Bank, we’re ready to help you evaluate the opportunities in front of you, think through your options, and move forward with confidence when the timing is right.
As always, thank you for your trust and continued business. We appreciate the opportunity to be of service.
— Joe Close, President, Community & Specialty Banking, Country Club Bank, a division of FNBO, Member FDIC
Economic Insights
Growth, geopolitics, and the AI bet
April marked one of the strongest months for equities in more than five years, with major indexes rebounding sharply and reaching new highs.
Geopolitical tensions, inflation concerns, and questions surrounding interest rates remain very real, yet markets have largely looked through the headlines and focused instead on the underlying fundamentals.
That stability is being supported by two important forces: strong corporate earnings and accelerating investment in productivity-enhancing technologies, particularly artificial intelligence.
Earnings growth has remained well above historical averages. U.S. earnings are expected to grow roughly 18% over the next year, compared to the long-term average closer to 7%.
Importantly, that strength is not concentrated in a single sector. While technology and AI investment continue to lead, earnings growth has broadened across industries and global markets.
At the same time, the economy itself appears to be shifting. Long-term labor force growth is slowing, but productivity is improving.
Increasingly, productivity, rather than workforce expansion, is the economy's and market's bet that will be the primary engine of economic growth. AI remains a major part of that conversation. While the long-term impact may ultimately be transformative, its near-term effects are still developing. History suggests that new technologies are often overestimated in the short run and underestimated over the long run.
Inflation, however, remains the key variable to watch.
Recent geopolitical tensions and ongoing deglobalization trends could keep inflation moderately elevated for longer than many expected. Market-based inflation expectations have moved back toward 3% in the near term, even as longer-term expectations remain more contained.
For investors, this creates a more nuanced environment. There are legitimate reasons for optimism, but also reasons for prudence. Valuations remain elevated, and markets may have less room for disappointment than in prior years.
Bottom Line
Markets move for many reasons, but today the dominant narrative is technology investment, particularly around artificial intelligence. The question for investors is how much is real and how much is hype.
History suggests the answer is likely both. From railroads to the internet, transformative technologies have often been overestimated in the short term and underestimated over the long term, a concept known as Amara’s Law.
In the longer term, expectations for AI remain significant. Research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago suggests economists and technologists broadly expect AI to boost productivity and economic growth. Median estimates call for GDP growth of roughly 2.5%, modestly above long-term trends, while more optimistic forecasts approach 4% growth.
Some projections also suggest labor force participation could decline from approximately 62% today to 55% by 2050, with AI potentially accounting for nearly half of that decline, the equivalent of roughly 10 million jobs over time.
But what about today?
Inflation expectations have continued to move higher this year, with one- and two-year expectations now near 3%, while longer-term expectations remain closer to 2.25%–2.5%.
That leaves markets balancing two competing forces: persistent inflation pressures and the long-term promise of AI-driven productivity gains.
For now, markets appear willing to look through the near-term uncertainty. Strong earnings growth, resilient economic activity, and continued investment in AI infrastructure continue to support equities, even as inflation and geopolitical risks remain elevated. The key question ahead is whether productivity gains can ultimately outpace inflation pressures and support a new phase of sustainable economic growth.
The message is clear: diversification is working, and leadership is broadening, and those are encouraging sign for long-term investors.
Invest well. Be well.
— Rusty Vanneman, CFA®, CMT®, Chief Investment Officer (CIO), FNBO Wealth
CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are registered trademarks owned by CFA Institute. The Chartered Market Technicians Association (CMT Association) owns the certification marks CMT® and CHARTERED MARKET TECHNICIAN®, which it authorizes use of by individuals who have completed the CMT Association’s initial and ongoing certification requirements.
The opinions and views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Country Club Trust Company, a division of First National Bank of Omaha (FNBO), or any affiliate thereof. Information provided is for illustrative and discussion purposes only, should not be considered a recommendation, and is subject to change. Some information provided above may be obtained from outside sources believed to be reliable, but no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness.
Please note that investments involve risk, and that past performance does not guarantee future results. Investment products are not insured by FDIC/other federal agencies; are not deposits of/nor guaranteed by the Bank or any of its subsidiaries/affiliates; and may lose value.
Economic Development Partnership Profile
Jon Stephens of Port KC shares vision of growth and global opportunity for the Kansas City area
Speaking to a gathering of business and community leaders at Country Club Bank recently, Jon Stephens, President & CEO of Port KC, painted a picture of a Kansas City region entering a new era of growth, visibility, and global relevance.
His message centered on a simple but ambitious idea: “The next generation and the next decade of economic growth will favor places that combine infrastructure, energy, talent, and stability,” Stephens said. “Kansas City really sits at the intersection of all four of those.”
Stephens emphasized that Port KC’s role extends far beyond traditional notions of a port authority. While the organization continues to focus heavily on transportation, logistics, rail, trucking, and river infrastructure, he argued that economic development begins with placemaking — creating a city where people want to live, work, visit, and invest.
One of the strongest examples is the transformation of the Berkley Riverfront. Once a neglected industrial dumping ground, the area has evolved into one of Kansas City’s most dynamic districts, with more than $1.5 billion in committed development underway.
Stephens highlighted the creation of the world’s first stadium purpose-built for a professional women’s soccer team, extensive trail and streetcar investments, new residential density, boutique hospitality, public gathering spaces, and arts initiatives that are helping redefine the city’s national image.
He also discussed how Port KC is leveraging Kansas City’s strategic location as one of the nation’s largest rail and highway hubs to attract advanced manufacturing, logistics, cold storage, and global trade.
Projects such as the Missouri River Terminal and the Critical Materials Crossroads initiative are designed to strengthen domestic supply chains for rare earth minerals and other strategic materials critical to future industries and technologies.
Stephens also addressed emerging sectors, including data centers and AI infrastructure, explaining that Port KC has focused on partnering with top-tier operators.
Throughout his remarks, Stephens repeatedly returned to a larger theme: Kansas City’s star is on the rise. With the World Cup approaching, global attention increasing, and billions in investment reshaping the region, he argued that Kansas City has a rare opportunity to tell its story to the world.
“We are no longer just the affordable and safe option,” Stephens said. “Yes, we are still affordable. Yes, we are still safe. But we are also advancing. We’ve invested in our infrastructure. We’ve invested in our ideas, and we’ve invested in our people.”
Banking on Small Business
Small Business Month celebrates the backbone of the economy
Each May, communities across the United States observe Small Business Month and National Small Business Week, a tradition established by the U.S. Small Business Administration in 1953.
The annual observance was established to celebrate entrepreneurs, family businesses, startups, and local employers who drive innovation, create jobs, and strengthen communities nationwide.
Today, small businesses remain a critical force in the American economy. According to the SBA Office of Advocacy, small businesses account for 99.9% of all U.S. businesses, employ more than 62 million Americans, and generate roughly 43.5% of the nation’s GDP.
Just like their larger counterparts, small businesses are rapidly adapting to change. Artificial intelligence, digital payments, automation, and data-driven marketing tools are increasingly becoming part of everyday operations, helping smaller companies compete more effectively in a fast-changing marketplace.
More than anything, Small Business Month serves as a reminder that small businesses continue to embody perseverance, creativity, and optimism — qualities that remain essential to the long-term strength of both local communities and the broader U.S. economy. With sincere appreciation and congratulations to small businesses everywhere this month!