The Bottom Line - Banking on History
Families serving families, from vision to legacy
Every business has a story behind it. And that story often begins with a family, a founder, or a small group of people who took a leap of faith and decided to build something.
At Country Club Bank, our role is to honor those stories by providing sound advice, thoughtful planning, and reliable financial support through every chapter of growth.
Today, we’re proud to carry forward a legacy of community banking that has defined Country Club Bank for generations, now further strengthened by FNBO’s 168-year heritage as a family-owned institution. Becoming part of FNBO brings greater resources and expanded capabilities while remaining true to what matters most: personal relationships, local decision-making, and a deep commitment to the communities we serve. It’s a partnership grounded in long-term thinking and stewardship, built to span generations.
Our private banking practice reflects these principles by meeting you and your family wherever you are on your journey. You may be starting a business, scaling operations, preparing for succession, or considering a future sale.
Along the way, personal finances often become more complex as cash management, investments, trusts, estate planning, and philanthropic goals increasingly intersect with business decisions. We help bring clarity to that complexity.
What distinguishes our approach is integration. Business banking and personal wealth planning aren’t separate conversations, they’re part of the same financial picture. Our team coordinates both sides, helping you see the full view of your financial life to make confident, well-informed decisions.
We also understand that no two families share the same priorities, values, or vision for the future. Our role is to understand what success means to you and tailor solutions that support your goals, whether that’s expanding your company, preparing the next generation for leadership, protecting wealth, or simplifying financial management so you can stay focused on running your business.
At its core, our private banking group serves families — with care, discretion, and a long-term commitment to helping you build, grow, preserve, and transition what you’ve worked so hard to create. We’re grateful for your trust and look forward to continuing this journey together.
— Rachael Ausmus, SVP, Director of Private Banking, Country Club Bank, a division of FNBO, Member FDIC
Economic Insights
2026 Economic & Market Outlook: The Next Move
As we complete the first month of the new year, many are asking what to expect in 2026 and how we’re positioning portfolios for what’s to come. While we believe that investment management is more about preparation than prediction, we do think it’s helpful to share perspectives on the economic signals we’re watching and the data guiding our portfolio decisions.
Our approach remains grounded in three enduring principles: Stay invested. Stay diversified. Stay disciplined.
These themes have long anchored our investment philosophy, and they continue to guide us as markets and the economy evolve. Below, we share more about what these themes mean in both theory and practice.
Markets delivered strong returns, but crosscurrents are rising
Financial markets rebounded meaningfully in 2025, with positive returns across all major asset classes, particularly in equities. Balanced and diversified portfolios were rewarded by staying invested.
However, strong markets can create complacency. Persistent inflation, divisive political dynamics, and uncertainty around artificial intelligence’s impact on employment have introduced competing crosscurrents and required discipline.
History also reminds us that volatility is normal. Over the last 30 years, the S&P 500 experienced an average intra-year decline of -15%, yet still produced an average annual return of +12 % over that period.
In any given year, the probability of a positive market return is 74%. In comparison, the chance of a bear market is 25%, but over 15-year horizons, the likelihood of positive returns approaches 100% for investors who stay invested.
Economic growth is steady, increasingly driven by productivity and AI
U.S. real GDP growth from 2020 to 2025 averaged 2.3%, similar to the prior decade, but the drivers of growth are shifting. With fewer workers entering the labor force due to demographic trends, future expansion increasingly depends on productivity, particularly corporate efficiency initiatives and AI investment.
Consumer spending continues to anchor the economy, historically representing 68% of U.S. economic activity, with higher-income households providing much of today’s consumption resilience.
At the same time, business investment made a significant contribution to GDP growth last year, reflecting expanding technology and AI infrastructure spending.
Labor markets are cooling, and inflation remains elevated
Total employment growth slowed to 0.6% over the past year. The unemployment rate remains relatively low at 4.6%, but has been rising steadily since mid-2023, particularly impacting younger workers and moderating income growth.
Inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index shows annual inflation at 2.8% as of September, driven in part by tariffs. Economists estimate roughly 20% of tariff costs are passed through to consumers in nondurable goods, specifically food prices.
While high-net-worth households continue spending, the average consumer faces mounting affordability pressure.
Corporate profitability and AI adoption remain strong
Corporate profit margins remain near the highest levels of the past 30 years. In the third quarter, 83% of S&P 500 companies reported earnings above analyst estimates, the strongest result since 2021.
AI adoption is accelerating rapidly. 79% of organizations now report using generative AI in at least one business function, with 31% actively scaling AI initiatives.
While the workforce impact is still unfolding, AI will be a durable long-term driver of productivity and profitability.
Valuations are high, making diversification critical
U.S. large-cap stocks, particularly technology leaders, now dominate market returns, and that concentration is something to watch carefully. The S&P 1500 trades at a 21.8x price-to-earnings ratio, well above the 30-year average of 17.0x. Elevated valuations suggest more modest future returns and reinforce the importance of diversification.
Outside the largest U.S. companies, opportunities are more attractively priced. Small- and mid-cap stocks currently trade at a 30% valuation discount to large caps. In contrast, international markets trade at 15.3x P/E in developed markets and 13.4x P/E in emerging markets, both well below U.S. valuations.
Bonds and alternatives regain appeal
With higher absolute yields, Treasury bonds are now more attractively valued relative to equities than at any time since the late 1990s. This improves portfolio risk-reward balance and provides stability should economic growth slow.
At the same time, tight corporate credit spreads signal caution. Alternative strategies, such as option-based income funds and tangible assets, are becoming more accessible and can improve portfolio resilience.
Our takeaways for 2026
Rather than attempting to forecast short-term market moves, we remain focused on preparation. The data continue to support the value of staying invested through volatility, diversifying thoughtfully across asset classes and geographies, and remaining disciplined with a long-term allocation plan. As we position portfolios for what’s next, we look forward to helping clients navigate 2026 with clarity and confidence.
Read or download the full 2026 Wealth Outlook here. You can also check out the latest episode of The Vault podcast featuring Rusty Vanneman, CIO, FNBO Wealth.
— Rusty Vanneman, CFA®, CMT®, Chief Investment Officer (CIO), FNBO Wealth
CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are registered trademarks owned by CFA Institute. The Chartered Market Technicians Association (CMT Association) owns the certification marks CMT® and CHARTERED MARKET TECHNICIAN®, which it authorizes use of by individuals who have completed the CMT Association’s initial and ongoing certification requirements.
The opinions and views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Country Club Trust Company, a division of First National Bank of Omaha (FNBO), or any affiliate thereof. Information provided is for illustrative and discussion purposes only, should not be considered a recommendation, and is subject to change. Some information provided above may be obtained from outside sources believed to be reliable, but no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness.
Please note that investments involve risk, and that past performance does not guarantee future results. Investment products are not insured by FDIC/other federal agencies; are not deposits of/nor guaranteed by the Bank or any of its subsidiaries/affiliates; and may lose value.
Partnership Profile
Building with purpose — and partnership from Country Club Bank
For Newkirk Novak Construction Partners, construction isn’t just about projects. It’s about people and the clients they serve, the teams they lead, and the communities that will live with the results for decades.
“We started this company with one goal in mind,” said co-founder John Novak. “To do great work grounded in personal connections to our clients, our design and build partners, and our employees.”
Newkirk Novak launched in 2017, when Novak and co-founder Lynn Newkirk took what Novak calls “the biggest leap of our lives”, leaving stable, successful careers to build something new and different.
Between them, they brought 40+ years of industry experience. They also brought a clear vision: to build a firm where trust and relationships could be cultivated naturally. If they could create an environment like that, they felt, then good clients, projects, and profits would follow. They were right.
That mindset has helped Newkirk Novak grow into one of the largest contractors in the Kansas City metro, with more than 60 employees today. For Newkirk, the “why” matters as much as the growth.
“About 90% of our work is community-based,” Newkirk said. “It’s a project type that somebody’s going to use, right here in our metro area, and they’re probably going to use these facilities and benefit from them for generations. That’s what drives us in our work.”
A banking relationship built on straight talk
When they started the firm, Newkirk and Novak needed more than a place to open accounts. They needed a partner, and Country Club Bank was a fast, easy choice compared to other banks.
“A true partner tells you what you need to hear,” Novak said. “Not what you want to hear.”
That practical, honest guidance has shown up in pivotal moments, from helping to establish Newkirk Novak’s construction bonding relationship to navigating major financial decisions alongside their ownership, such as the purchase and renovation of Newkirk Novak’s new headquarters building, which the firm occupied in December 2024.
Just as necessary, Novak said, has been the recent transition of Country Club Bank’s ownership to FNBO. He appreciates the alignment and fit.
“A change like that can be disruptive, but knowing who FNBO is culturally, and their commitment to remaining a family-held business that serves other family-held businesses, really matters to us.”
For Newkirk Novak, the pattern and similarities of Country Club Bank and FNBO are familiar: build relationships, do purposeful work, and stay grounded in what got you here.
“Country Club Bank and FNBO have amazing people, they support them, they get out of their way, and they give them the tools and resources they need to be successful,” said Novak. “We share those operating principles as well.”
Newkirk says that though the days may be long sometimes, the images of their work being used — kids walking into a new school, firefighters moving into a new station, neighborhoods gaining public spaces — make the team effort well worth it.
“Construction’s hard,” Newkirk said, “but when you believe in what you’re building, you don’t mind going the extra mile, and that’s pretty neat.”
The Vault Podcast
Meet FNBO's new Chief Investment Officer, Rusty Vanneman, on 'The Vault' podcast
Check out this week’s episode of "The Vault" podcast to meet Rusty Vanneman, FNBO's new Chief Investment Officer. A Nebraska native with 35 years of investment experience, Rusty brings deep market insight, a client-first philosophy, and a passion for helping investors achieve their goals. Tune in as we welcome Rusty to FNBO and explore his perspective on markets, leadership, and what’s ahead for wealth management. Click here to watch and listen.
