The Bottom Line - Banking on the Long View
Certainty, Continuity, and Uncommon Understanding: Building Trust and Relationships That Endure
As we close another year, we are reminded that lasting success is never built on short-term wins alone, it's built through discipline, trust, and long-term relationships.
At Country Club Bank, now in partnership with FNBO, our focus remains firmly on the long view and the sustained success of our clients and our communities. As a privately held organization with permanent capital, we can think beyond quarterly pressure and invest deliberately in people, partnerships, and performance.
That long-term mindset creates what matters most: certainty of execution, continuity of contact, and an uncommon understanding of the businesses we serve.
We believe great banking is not reactive or transactional, it’s intentional and built on deep relationships and understanding.
We strive to anticipate and bring ideas, strategic guidance, and the right solutions before they are requested. When we do that well, everyone wins.
What makes this moment especially exciting is the expanded capabilities and capacity of our partnership with FNBO. From payments and international banking to specialty and enhanced lending solutions, we now offer much more, all while preserving the relationship-driven culture that has defined Country Club Bank for so many years.
As proof of past and future partnership opportunities, this newsletter has shared stories of relationships rooted in trust and results shaped by long-term thinking.
To that end, we thought it appropriate to highlight some of the clients we’ve featured over the past year, including Staying Home Corporation, AJ Manufacturing, Environmental Works, SnapIT, Mies Family Foods, Bickimer Homes, Bee Organized, and JM Fahey. It’s a great collection of entrepreneurs and operators finding new and creative ways to grow their businesses and create long-term jobs.
To our clients, colleagues, and community partners, thank you for your trust and collaboration, and for believing in our relationship-first model of banking. As we look ahead, we’re energized by what’s possible and grateful for the opportunity to continue building strong relationships that help businesses thrive.
— Brian Hoban, Kansas City Corporate Banking Leader, Country Club Bank, a division of FNBO, Member FDIC
Economic Insights
Looking back at 2025: Housing, inflation, and jobs, and what to watch in 2026
As we near the end of the year, this is a natural time to review the factors that have contributed to the gradual reset of the U.S. economy.
Housing markets moved closer to balance, inflation stayed contained but stubbornly above target, and the labor market cooled without tipping into recession. Compared with the volatility of recent years, 2025 was less about sharp turns and more about slower normalization, setting the stage for a more measured outlook heading into 2026.
Inflation made progress in 2025, but not a clean return to target
At the beginning of the year, inflation was running at roughly 2.9% year over year, still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal but far below the peaks seen in recent years. Inflation drifted modestly lower in mid-year, helped by stable goods prices and resilient supply chains. However, progress proved uneven, and by early fall, inflation ticked back up to around 3.0%, reflecting lingering pressure from shelter and services costs.
As we reach year-end, inflation remains near 2.9%–3.0%, signaling that price pressures are contained but not entirely under control. The broader takeaway from 2025 is that inflation is no longer accelerating, but it has also proven challenging to push decisively below 3% without further economic cooling.
The labor market calmed down
At the start of 2025, the unemployment rate stood at approximately 4.0%, and employers were still adding jobs at a healthy pace. As the year progressed, hiring slowed, job openings declined further, and wage growth moderated, shifting leverage gradually back toward employers.
By early fall, unemployment had risen to about 4.4%, its highest level in several years, though still low by historical standards. Even so, layoffs remain contained, and job growth, while slower, has stayed positive. In short, the labor market cooled in 2025, but it did so in an orderly way, avoiding the sharp downturns markets had feared.
Interest rates remained elevated for much of 2025 before easing this fall
The year began with the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50%, keeping borrowing costs high for consumers, developers, and businesses. For much of 2025, the Federal Reserve held rates steady, emphasizing caution as it monitored inflation and labor-market trends.
In total, rates were cut by roughly 75 basis points in 2025. The most recent cut this past Wednesday of 25 basis points lowered the federal funds target range to approximately 3.50%–3.75%, marking the lowest level in several years. While rates remain well above pre-pandemic norms, the shift signals a clear move away from restrictive policy.
Housing reflected both relief and looming constraint
For renters, 2025 extended the relief that began in late 2024. Markets such as Austin, Phoenix, Denver, Atlanta, and parts of the Midwest continued to see flat or declining rents as the wave of multifamily deliveries peaked and vacancy rates edged higher. Renters enjoyed more breaks and deals than they had in years.
At the same time, new apartment construction slowed meaningfully as financing costs and underwriting standards tightened. That slowdown sets up a potential supply crunch in 2026 and 2027, particularly in high-growth markets where demand remains strong.
On the ownership side, affordability remained a challenge. Mortgage rates eased modestly but stayed elevated enough to constrain activity. Even so, single-family construction proved resilient, supported by limited resale inventory and builders’ use of incentives, smaller footprints, and rate buy-downs to keep projects moving.
Fed’s outlook provides additional clues
The Federal Reserve’s Summary of Economic Projections, released after the December 9–10 FOMC meeting, provides some additional insights. Policymakers expect moderate growth, with real GDP rising about 1.7% in 2025 and improving to 2.3% in 2026, while unemployment is projected at 4.5% at year-end 2025, before settling near 4.2% in the longer term.
Inflation is expected to continue easing, with PCE inflation around 2.9% in 2025 and moving back toward the Fed’s 2.0% target by 2028. Reflecting that gradual progress, the Fed’s projected policy path shows rates ending 2025 near 3.6% and declining slowly as the economy moves into 2026.
Bottom Line: 2025 was a year of normalization. Inflation stabilized near 3%, the labor market cooled without breaking, and interest rates began to ease after a prolonged period of restraint. As we look ahead to 2026, the focus will shift to timing—how quickly rates decline further, how housing supply responds, and how businesses and households adapt to a more balanced economic environment.
— Marcus Scott, CFA, CFP®, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) for Country Club Trust Company, a division of FNBO.
CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are registered trademarks owned by CFA Institute. Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards Inc. (CFP Board) owns the certification marks CFP®, CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™, CFP® (with plaque design), and CFP® (with flame design) in the U.S., which it authorizes use of by individuals who successfully complete CFP Board's initial and ongoing certification requirements.
The opinions and views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Country Club Trust Company, a division of First National Bank of Omaha (FNBO), or any affiliate thereof. Information provided is for illustrative and discussion purposes only, should not be considered a recommendation, and is subject to change. Some information provided above may be obtained from outside sources believed to be reliable, but no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness.
Please note that investments involve risk, and that past performance does not guarantee future results. Investment products are not insured by FDIC/other federal agencies; are not deposits of/nor guaranteed by the Bank or any of its subsidiaries/affiliates; and may lose value.
Focus on Charitable Giving
Coats for Kids: A 21-Year Commitment to Keeping Communities Warm
Coats for Kids: A 21-Year Commitment to Keeping Communities Warm
For more than two decades, Country Club Bank’s Coats for Kids program has stood as a tangible expression of the bank’s commitment to compassion, community, and collective action.
Launched in 2004 as a small, locally focused effort, the program has grown into a bank-wide initiative that continues to expand its reach year after year.
Coats for Kids is different from other user outerwear donation programs in that it raises funds to purchase brand-new coats in the exact sizes requested by school counselors, ensuring each child receives a coat that fits and feels special. This thoughtful approach has remained consistent even as the program has scaled significantly over time.
In 2025, Coats for Kids is celebrating its 21st year and supporting 45 schools across 13 school districts, including Head Start programs. Requests this year totaled 941 coats, reflecting both ongoing community need and the trusted relationships built with schools over many years. As costs have risen to an average of $30 per coat, the program’s fundraising efforts have grown in step, with a $30,000 goal for the year.
The program’s impact over time has been substantial. To date, Coats for Kids has raised $192,843 and provided 6,588 new winter coats to children across the region, each one made possible through the combined efforts of Country Club Bank associates, customers, and community partners.
We are incredibly proud that Country Club Bank associates remain the engine behind the program, leading grassroots fundraising efforts in branches throughout the year and engaging customers in meaningful ways to participate. These efforts not only fuel the program financially but also strengthen teamwork and reinforce a shared sense of purpose across the organization.
As Coats for Kids looks ahead, the focus remains on expanding responsibility, reaching more schools, serving more children, and continuing to meet families where the need exists. After 21 years, the program remains a clear reflection of Country Club Bank’s long-standing belief that strong communities are built through compassion, generosity, and sustainable programs with clear missions.
Thanks to all our associates, customers, and community partners who have made this success possible throughout the years.